Retention model · the updated threshold and domain task
2026–27 course · May 2027 preparation
Students completed a class and then joined a year-long study of how much course content they retained. Their initial group test score was 75 out of 100 at . They were tested at the end of each of the following 12 months. At months, the score was 70.84.
The score is modeled by , where is measured in points and is the number of months since the initial test.
In the revised official sample, B(iii) is removed. B now asks for average rate of change and its contextual interpretation. C asks for a threshold equation and a justified contextual domain. The sample still totals 6 points: A 2, B 2, C 2.
Older Drive models may retain linear-estimation, concavity, or limiting-value tasks. They remain useful historical practice; they are not the current sample's exact subpart sequence. The official family description permits more than logarithmic models, so do not assume every future Q2 will copy this context.
Your responses
Work through each part. Reveal the model answer and check its scoring points when you are ready.
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Part A(i)
1 pointUse the data to write two equations that can be used to determine and .
Learn this partMethod notes · A(i)
Substitute the initial and later scores into the full shifted logarithmic expression; time zero is valid because the argument is t+1.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Translate every observation into a model equation
Translate every observation into a model equation
Represent observed input-output pairs in the exact supplied model form, including shifts and branch conditions.
1Recognize
Write equations that can be used to find the constants.
2Write
Identify the meaning, time origin, and units of both variables before substituting. If outputs are measured in thousands, keep that scale consistently.
Insert each observed input and its corresponding output into the full stated formula. Keep shifts inside exponents and logarithm arguments.
Use enough independent observations for the unknown constants. A quadratic usually needs three independent conditions; common two-parameter forms need two.
For piecewise models, choose the branch containing that input. If continuity is explicitly required, equate the branches at the junction; never assume continuity when it is not stated.
Present actual equations with equals signs. Do not replace a request for the setup with only the fitted parameter values.
Because [first input-output observation] and [second observation], the equations are [full model with first pair substituted] and [full model with second pair substituted].
3Avoid
Using when the model specifies ; taking a logarithm of time instead of the shifted argument; selecting the wrong piecewise branch.
Teaching example
If , , and , write and . For with and , write and .
Why the reasoning works
The setup shows which observations constrain the parameters. A time shift changes the exponent or logarithm argument even when it does not change elapsed time between observations.
Compare answer & self-assess
and .
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
, .
Where credit is lost
, .
Part A(ii)
1 pointFind and as decimal approximations.
Learn this partMethod notes · A(ii)
Use the initial observation to simplify one equation, then solve for the remaining coefficient. Store its full precision for the later threshold.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Solve, store, and check the fitted constants
Solve, store, and check the fitted constants
Solve the model system while maintaining enough precision for later predictions.
1Recognize
Find the constants as decimal approximations.
2Write
For , divide two positive-output equations to get , choose the positive base, and substitute back for . Apply any given time shift when recovering .
For , subtract the equations to isolate , then find . For a quadratic, solve the linear system in its coefficients.
Store full-precision parameter values or exact expressions. Show requested rounded values, but use stored values in subsequent work.
Substitute the constants into every supplied observation. A mismatch signals a branch, time, scale, or rounding error.
Distinguish a parameter from an initial value: a shift can mean the coefficient named a is not the output at time zero.
[Eliminate/subtract/divide] to obtain [one-parameter equation]. Thus [constants], to the requested precision. Substitution reproduces [given observations].
3Avoid
Reporting only a regression formula when constants are requested, choosing a negative exponential base, or reusing rounded coefficients in a sensitive later computation.
Teaching example
For and , division gives . A positive exponential base gives , then . Check: and .
Why the reasoning works
Elimination uses the model structure instead of guessing. Stored precision prevents an early approximation from changing a later root or threshold.
Compare answer & self-assess
, . Thus . Keep the unrounded value of in subsequent calculations.
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
.
Where credit is lost
.
Part B(i)
1 pointUse the observed data to find the average rate of change from to , in points per month. Give a decimal approximation and show the computation.
Learn this partMethod notes · B(i)
Show the score difference divided by the specified elapsed months, then report points per month with the requested precision.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Compute a secant slope and interpret its units
Compute a secant slope and interpret its units
Distinguish total output change from average output change per input unit.
1Recognize
Average rate of change, followed by a computation or contextual interpretation.
2Write
Use the requested endpoints and write . Keep the same endpoint order in numerator and denominator.
Use observed endpoint data when the question says to use given data. Show the numerical quotient before reporting the result.
Attach output units per input unit, retaining scales such as thousands. A change in a percentage level is measured in percentage points, not relative percent change.
To interpret, identify the quantity, the entire time interval, the direction of change, and the average amount per unit time.
A negative result means decreasing on average across that interval. It does not assert a constant daily change or establish monotonicity at every instant.
The average rate is [shown difference quotient] [output units per input unit]. From [start] to [end], [quantity] [increased/decreased] by an average of [magnitude] [output units] per [input unit].
3Avoid
Giving only the output difference, saying the rate decreases when the quantity decreases, omitting interval or units, or claiming the exact same change each day.
Teaching example
A tank has liters at hour and liters at hour . Its average rate is liters per hour. Over hours 0 through 4, the amount decreased by an average of 2 liters per hour.
Why the reasoning works
The quotient is the slope of the line through the two endpoint observations. It compresses the net change over the interval into one constant rate.
Compare answer & self-assess
points per month.
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
points per month.
Where credit is lost
points per month.
Part B(ii)
1 pointInterpret the average rate of change from B(i) in the context of this study.
Learn this partMethod notes · B(ii)
Interpret the signed rate for the group score over the whole named interval; do not claim that every monthly score changed by exactly that amount.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Compute a secant slope and interpret its units
Compute a secant slope and interpret its units
Distinguish total output change from average output change per input unit.
1Recognize
Average rate of change, followed by a computation or contextual interpretation.
2Write
Use the requested endpoints and write . Keep the same endpoint order in numerator and denominator.
Use observed endpoint data when the question says to use given data. Show the numerical quotient before reporting the result.
Attach output units per input unit, retaining scales such as thousands. A change in a percentage level is measured in percentage points, not relative percent change.
To interpret, identify the quantity, the entire time interval, the direction of change, and the average amount per unit time.
A negative result means decreasing on average across that interval. It does not assert a constant daily change or establish monotonicity at every instant.
The average rate is [shown difference quotient] [output units per input unit]. From [start] to [end], [quantity] [increased/decreased] by an average of [magnitude] [output units] per [input unit].
3Avoid
Giving only the output difference, saying the rate decreases when the quantity decreases, omitting interval or units, or claiming the exact same change each day.
Teaching example
A tank has liters at hour and liters at hour . Its average rate is liters per hour. Over hours 0 through 4, the amount decreased by an average of 2 liters per hour.
Why the reasoning works
The quotient is the slope of the line through the two endpoint observations. It compresses the net change over the interval into one constant rate.
Compare answer & self-assess
From month 0 to month 3, the group's score decreased, on average, by approximately 1.387 points per month.
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
During the first 3 months, the group's score decreased on average by about 1.387 points per month.
Where credit is lost
The group loses exactly 1.387 points in every month.
Part C(i)
1 pointThe study leaders want to use beyond 12 months. They judge the model appropriate until the predicted score is below 65. Write and solve an equation for the time when the predicted score equals 65. Give a decimal approximation in months.
Learn this partMethod notes · C(i)
Write the score model equal to the stated validity threshold, solve for the relevant time, and check with unrounded coefficients.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Turn a stopping rule into a threshold and domain
Turn a stopping rule into a threshold and domain
Solve for the relevant boundary input, then explain a contextual domain rather than giving only an algebraic domain.
1Recognize
A model is usable until a boundary, or current official Q2 C(i) and C(ii).
2Write
Translate the stopping rule into an equation at equality, such as a score threshold, zero quantity, or allowed difference between two predictions.
Solve using stored coefficients. Check candidate crossings in the original model, and select the first relevant boundary after the stated start when that is the rule.
Combine the contextual starting time, formula restrictions, and ending condition. State input units and distinguish additional elapsed time from time since the original origin.
Include the boundary when equality is allowed; exclude it for a strict positive/above condition. Continuous time should not be rounded down merely because observations were recorded at integer times.
A positive unshifted exponential decay never reaches exactly zero at finite time. Without a positive practical cutoff or another model, do not invent a finite stopping time.
The revised official sample separates the threshold equation in C(i) from the contextual explanation in C(ii); historical part C tasks can ask different things.
Solve [model equals boundary] to obtain [relevant T]. The model applies for [interval], because [start] and [why predictions after T violate the contextual rule]. Include or exclude equality according to the condition.
3Avoid
Giving only for a shifted logarithm, omitting the contextual stopping rule, confusing total and additional time, or assigning a finite zero to positive exponential decay.
Teaching example
If is usable while for , solve to get . The domain is . If the rule were , the upper endpoint would be excluded.
Why the reasoning works
The equation finds where the rule changes status; the inequality and context determine which side and whether equality belongs in the domain.
Compare answer & self-assess
, so . Therefore months.
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
, giving months (27.006 is also shown in the official guide).
Where credit is lost
months.
Part C(ii)
1 pointExplain how your time from C(i) gives an appropriate domain restriction for . Refer to the context.
Learn this partMethod notes · C(ii)
Use the threshold time from C(i) to restrict the model from its contextual start. Explain what the rule permits at equality and why later predictions fall outside it.
These notes explain the method. Your response stays above; the selected question’s worked answer remains in its separate review.
Turn a stopping rule into a threshold and domain
Turn a stopping rule into a threshold and domain
Solve for the relevant boundary input, then explain a contextual domain rather than giving only an algebraic domain.
1Recognize
A model is usable until a boundary, or current official Q2 C(i) and C(ii).
2Write
Translate the stopping rule into an equation at equality, such as a score threshold, zero quantity, or allowed difference between two predictions.
Solve using stored coefficients. Check candidate crossings in the original model, and select the first relevant boundary after the stated start when that is the rule.
Combine the contextual starting time, formula restrictions, and ending condition. State input units and distinguish additional elapsed time from time since the original origin.
Include the boundary when equality is allowed; exclude it for a strict positive/above condition. Continuous time should not be rounded down merely because observations were recorded at integer times.
A positive unshifted exponential decay never reaches exactly zero at finite time. Without a positive practical cutoff or another model, do not invent a finite stopping time.
The revised official sample separates the threshold equation in C(i) from the contextual explanation in C(ii); historical part C tasks can ask different things.
Solve [model equals boundary] to obtain [relevant T]. The model applies for [interval], because [start] and [why predictions after T violate the contextual rule]. Include or exclude equality according to the condition.
3Avoid
Giving only for a shifted logarithm, omitting the contextual stopping rule, confusing total and additional time, or assigning a finite zero to positive exponential decay.
Teaching example
If is usable while for , solve to get . The domain is . If the rule were , the upper endpoint would be excluded.
Why the reasoning works
The equation finds where the rule changes status; the inequality and context determine which side and whether equality belongs in the domain.
Compare answer & self-assess
The initial test is at . The decreasing model reaches 65 points at about months and predicts less than 65 after that. Therefore an appropriate contextual domain is approximately months.
Check each scoring point
Mark a point earned only when your own response contains the required evidence. An unreviewed point contributes zero to this display.
Earns credit
Use months: the test begins at 0, and predictions fall below the allowed 65 points after this endpoint.
Where credit is lost
The domain is because the logarithm must be defined.